48. The Future of Cars

48. 汽車的未來

The fact is, when we do our market research around the world, we see that there's nearly a universal aspiration on the part of people to own an automobile. And 750 million people in the world today own a car. And you say, boy, that's a lot. But you know what? That's just 12 percent of the population. We really have to ask the question: Can the world sustain that number of automobiles? And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years, it looks like the world car park could grow to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles. Now, if you Parked those end to end and wrapped them around the Earth; that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.

實際上，我們在做世界范圍的市場調研時，發現人們都是對車充滿渴望的。現在全球有7億5千萬人擁有汽車。你可能覺得，哇，這么多!但你們知道么?這個數字僅僅占全球人口的12%。我們不得不問這樣一個問題：地球能承受得了這么多車么?如果你注意到對未來10年、15年至20年的預測，你會發現世界上停車場的數量將會增長到能容納下11億車輛。如果將這些車首尾相連繞地球停放，那么其長度將是地球周長的125倍。

Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology over the last 100 years. Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago. But the fact remains: the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the sane. If we are going to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago, knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product and about the technologies that exist today, what would we do?

在過去的100年里，汽車技術飛速發展。汽車變得更加清潔、安全、高效，而且價格更加低廉，而不是讓我們望而興嘆的東西。但實際上，汽車的基本構造功能沒變。如果我們今天來重新發明汽車，而不是在100年前，在已經知道汽車的各種缺陷之后，結合現在的各種先進技術，我們會如何制造汽車？

What we've targeted for ourselves--and we're making great progress for this goal--is to have a propulsion system based on hydrogen and fuel cells, designed and validated, that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine--we're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine--and do it in terms of its affordability, add skill volumes, its performance and its durability. So that's what we're driving to for 2010. We haven't seen anything yet in our development work that says that isn't possible. We actually think the future's going to be event-driven. So since we can't predict the future, we want to spend a lot of our time trying to create that future.

我們的目標是制造一個以氫燃料電池為基礎的推進系統，這個目標正在進展中并且不斷得到改進。經過設計及驗證后，這個推進系統將能與內燃機媲美。我們打算淘汰內燃機，并在提高可購性，增加技能，提高性能和耐用性方面努力。這就是2010年我們要傲的工作。目前還沒發現在研發過程中有任何跡象表明我們的想法不可行。我們相信未來將成為具體事件的導向。雖然我們無法預測未來，所以我們會努力花時間去創造未來。

I'm very, very intrigued by the fact that our cars and trucks sit idle 90 percent of the time: they're parked, they Parked all around us. They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them. Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States, it turns out that 4 percent of the automobiles, the power in 4 percent of the automobiles, equals that of the electric grid of the U.S. That's a huge power-generating capability, a mobile power-generating capability. And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked to generate electricity for the grid.

我們的汽車以及卡車有90%的時間是停放著的，我對如何挖掘這段時間內車子的潛能很感興趣。這些車就停在我們周圍，停在距離他們的所有者不到100英尺的范圍內。比較汽車和美國電網的發電能力，汽車電力的四分之一相當于美國電網的供電能力。所以由此可看出汽車發電能力的強大，而且還是可移動的發電。氫燃料電池讓我們能夠充分利用資源，即使汽車和卡車停著的時候也能發電，為電網所用。

And the key to all of this is to make it affordable, to make it exciting, to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it. And again, this is a pretty big march to take here. And a lot of people say: how do you sleep at night when you're rustling with a problem of that magnitude? And I tell them I sleep like a baby: I wake up crying every two hours. Actually the theme of this conference, I think, has hit on really one of the major keys to pull that off--and that's relationships and working together. Thank you very much. (Applause).

但最重要的是我們要讓汽車物美價廉，變得令人興奮，并且有足夠的資金進行研發。要實現我們的設想還有很長的路要走。許多人擔心，如果考慮這樣一個巨大的工程，晚上怎么睡得肴。我告訴他們我睡覺時就像小嬰兒一樣，每兩個小時就醒來哭一次。我認為這次研討會的主題，實際上就是策劃出關鍵要素，并予以實現。那就是關系網的建立與相互合作。謝謝（掌聲）。
 

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