每天讀一點英文

之那些激勵我前行的英語演講

17 China and the WTO：the 15—year Itch
中國與WTO：十五年的渴望

Mr David Eldon:
艾爾敦先生:

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen, I stand before you today with a confession to make.
先生們，女士們，早上好！

It relates to something that I did recently.
今天我站在這里，要向大家坦白。

Exactly one month ago, I delivered a speech to another American audience. It was a gathering of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. I talked about Hong Kong's changing role. And about how Hong Kong can compete as it becomes increasingly easier for foreign companies to do business in China.
是關于最近我說過的一些話。一個月前，我向另一些美國聽眾發表了講話。那是在香港的美國商會的一次聚會上。我談到香港的角色正在發生變化。現在外國公司在中國開展業務越來越容易， 所以我也談到了在這種情況下香港怎樣進行競爭。

On that day in March, I made several suggestions. One of which was that when travelling overseas, government officials and business people from Hong Kong should spend more time selling Hong Kong to the sceptics. And less time speaking to the converted.
就在那一天，也就是在三月份，我提出了幾點建議。其中一點是香港的政府官員和商業人員在去海外時應該多花些時間向那些對香港持懷疑態度的人宣傳香港，而不要花太多時間和對香港友好的人談論香港。

Consequently I am here today, in front of a decidedly Hong Kong-friendly crowd, in direct violation of my own advice. That said, I plan to redeem myself by not devoting too much time talking about Hong Kong - a topic that is well known to this audience.
所以我今天會站在這里，站在一群對香港極為友好的人面前，直截了當地違背自己提出的建議。既然這么說，我打算對自己說過的話作出補償，不用太多的時間談論香港 - 這個話題對于今天的聽眾來說已經非常熟悉了。

Rather I intend to concentrate on the less known. In particular, the implications of China's entry into the WTO. The implications for Hong Kong and the implications for foreign companies.
我想多談一些大家不太熟悉的東西。尤其是中國加入WTO所產生的影響，對香港的影響，還有對外國公司的影響。

In doing so, I am going to focus my talk on three distinct areas of knowledge:
這樣，我準備集中談論三部分的內容:

what we know we know;
我們知道自己已經了解的事;

what we know we do not know; and
我們知道自己還沒有了解的事; 還有

what we do not know we know.
我們不知道自己已經了解的事

Common knowledge
眾所周知的內容

First, what we know we know. We know that China means different things to different people.
首先是我們知道自己已經了解的事。我們知道中國對于不同的人來說意味著不同的東西。

To overseas manufacturing firms or trading companies it is "the land of a billion buyers of shoes, cars and computers." To foreign companies already in China it is a place that warrants expansion. In fact, a recent survey found that nine out every 10 foreign companies operating in China plan to expand their investment in the next three years.
對于海外的制造商和貿易公司來說，中國是"有著十多億購買鞋子、汽車和電腦的消費者的國家"。 對于已經在中國的外國公司來說，在這里擴展業務是理所當然的。事實上，最近的一項調查表明，在中國運作的每十家外國公司中有九家計劃在未來三年里擴大投資。

To foreign financial institutions - particularly those interested in the provision of wealth management services - China is a market with enormous potential. After all it is a country with the highest rate of savings in the world.
對于外資的金融機構來說 - 尤其是那些對提供財富管理服務感興趣的外資金融機構來說 - 中國是一個有著巨大潛力的市場。畢竟這是一個有著全世界最高存款率的國家。

A country where reportedly more than 80 per cent of the bank deposits are held in 20 per cent of the accounts. To my Bank it is our birthplace. To your President it is a 'strategic competitor.'
根據報道，在中國超過80%的銀行存款存在20%的賬戶之中。對于我的銀行 - 匯豐銀行 - 來說，中國是我們的誕生地。對于各位的總統來說，中國是 '戰略性的競爭對手'。

Another thing we know we know and this audience in particular knows is that China's entry into the WTO means the role of Hong Kong will inevitably change.
另一件我們知道自己已經了解的事，也是在座的各位聽眾了解的事，就是中國加入WTO意味著香港的角色肯定會發生變化。

Hong Kong was once the only gateway to the Mainland market. A vital link between East and West. Between developed and less-developed nations. Between capitalist and reforming economies. Between China and everywhere else.
香港一度曾經是進入中國內地市場的唯一通道。它是一條至關重要的紐帶，聯系著東西方，聯系著發達國家和欠發達的國家，聯系著資本主義經濟和改革之中的經濟體，也聯系著中國和世界各地。

Today, Hong Kong no longer holds this privileged position. The reality is that Hong Kong hasn't held it for quite some time. Long before the ink was dry on China's WTO agreement, companies were choosing to bypass Hong Kong and go directly to Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere in the Mainland. Of course, a significant number of companies were also still coming to Hong Kong to take advantage of the city's close geographic, economic, political and cultural ties to the Mainland. And as you are aware they continue to come.
今天，香港已經不再擁有這一特殊地位。事實上，香港失去這一地位已經有一段時間了。在中國加入WTO之前，各公司早就選擇繞過香港，直接進入北京，上海和中國內地的其他地方。當然，也有大量公司還是到香港來，以利用這座城市與中國內地在地理，經濟，政治和文化方面的緊密聯系。大家也都看到，還有公司陸續到來。

We also know that China is in the midst of two transitions at one time: from a command to a market economy and from a rural to an urban society.
我們也知道中國正同時處于兩種轉變之中：從計劃經濟到市場經濟，從農業到都市社會。

And we know that the country faces a number of challenges: allocating incoming capital effectively; reforming state-owned enterprises; creating more jobs; spreading wealth more evenly; reducing bureaucracy; and eliminating corruption.
我們也知道這個國家正面臨著一系列的挑戰：有效分配涌入的資金；改革國有企業；創造更多的就業機會；更平均地分配財富；減少官僚作風；還有杜絕腐敗。

And now, living up to the commitments and the expectations of WTO membership can be added to this list.
現在，還可以加上一條：達到WTO成員國的承諾和期望。

Finally, we know that China has changed a great deal in a relatively short period of time. Thirty years ago US President Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger made a historic journey to China.
最后，我們知道中國在相對較短的時間里發生了巨大的變化。三十年前美國總統尼克松和他的國家安全事務助理基辛格對中國進行了一次具有歷史意義的訪問。

Their seven-day trip concluded with the signing of the Shanghai Communiqu¨| inside the Grand Hall of the Jinjiang Hotel in Shanghai. A couple of weeks ago, Dr Kissinger returned to the Jinjiang to deliver a speech commemorating the events of 1972.
他們為期七天的訪問的最后一項內容是在上海的錦江飯店小禮堂簽訂上海公報。就在幾星期前，基辛格博士又來到錦江飯店發表講話，紀念1972年的這一事件。

I do not know if Dr Kissinger took the time to explore the surrounding area. If he did, he would have possibly seen the nearby theatre that regularly plays the latest offering from Hollywood. He would have probably come across the American fast food outlets or the Italian designer clothing store just down the block.
我不知道基辛格博士是否花時間去周圍的地方看過。如果他這么做了，他可能會看到附近的一家電影院，這家電影院經常上映最新的好萊塢大片。沿著大街走，他可能會見到美式的快餐店或是意大利款式的服裝店。

Before crossing the street, he would have likely had to wait for a line of Japanese cars to pass and perhaps even the bus emblazoned with a larger-than-life Winnie the Pooh.
在過馬路之前，他很有可能要等著一長排日本汽車開過，甚至是畫著非常顯眼的小熊維尼圖案的公共汽車。

And if he stayed out late enough, he would have undoubtedly been able to stroll back to the hotel under the colorful neon lights advertising German cellular phones. In short, he would have definitely seen a very different China today than the one he saw 30 years ago.
如果他在外面逗留到很晚，他一定會在做著德國移動電話廣告的霓虹燈下漫步回到賓館。總而言之，他現在一定會看到與三十年前完全不同的一個中國。

Existing uncertainties
存在的不確定因素

The second area I want to focus on is what we know we do not know. In other words, the uncertainties related to the further opening of China's market.
我想說的第二部分是我們知道自己不了解的東西。換句話說，就是有關中國市場進一步開放的不確定因素。

Clearly, we do not know exactly how numerous industries will evolve. And it is a lack of advanced knowledge that is prompting much speculation. In the area of financial services for example, some predict that many of China's domestic banks will have a limited life span once the market is fully opened up in five years time.
很明顯，我們不知道到底這么多行業會怎樣發展。由于對事情缺乏深入的了解而導致許多揣測。比如，在金融服務這一方面，有一些人預測，一旦市場在五年后完全開放，許多中資銀行就會陸續關門。

Personally, I do not share this view. I think they will be very strong competitors. Partly because they are in the advantageous position of knowing the marketplace.
我個人不同意這種看法。我認為這些中資銀行將會是非常強勁的競爭對手。這一部分是因為這些銀行了解市場，處于有利地位。

Partly because they have national networks that are impossible - not to mention impractical - to match. And partly because they have a strong base of customers and are becoming increasingly modern.
另一部分原因是它們有遍布全國的網絡， 這一點是根本無法匹敵的，更不用說趕上它們是不切實際的了。還有一部分原因是它們擁有強大的客戶基礎，并且正在逐步走向現代化。

Consider the Mainland's largest bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. It recently announced that it has more than 10,000 corporates and 1.8 million individuals using its online banking services. But the main reason I think domestic banks in China will be strong competitors: they are very fast learners.
比如中國內地最大的銀行 - 中國工商銀行，最近這家銀行宣布有超過10,000家企業和一百八十萬的個人在使用其網上銀行的服務。但是我認為中資銀行將成為強勁競爭對手的主要原因是：它們學習的速度非常快。

Another thing we know we do not know - and this specifically relates to Hong Kong - is the indirect benefits that will flow from a more open market in China.
另一件我們知道自己不了解的事和香港很有關系，就是從更加開放的中國市場獲得的間接利益。

For example, if mainland investors are allowed to invest their foreign exchange holdings in Hong Kong, the SAR's stock market would clearly benefit. Hong Kong's position as a fund raising centre for Mainland companies would also be enhanced. We know this idea is under consideration. We also know we do not know when it may happen.
比如，如果內地的投資者獲準在香港投資外幣股票，香港特別行政區的股票市場肯定會得到好處。香港作為內地公司募集資金的中心，地位也會提高。我們知道這一想法正在考慮之中。我們也知道我們不了解這種情況什么時候會發生。

Likewise, we know that if banks in Hong Kong are permitted to accept RMB deposits, the SAR's status as an international financial centre and as the premier regional financial centre will be enhanced even further. Once again we know this idea is being considered, but we do not know when it may happen.
同樣地，我們知道如果香港的銀行獲準接受人民幣存款，香港特別行政區作為國際金融中心和主要的地區性金融中心，它的地位將會更進一步提高。我們也知道這一想法正在考慮之中，但是我們不知道這種情況什么時候會發生。

A third unknown - and one that has been getting considerable attention recently - is the accuracy of some of China's statistics. As you are undoubtedly aware, questions have been raised about certain numbers. Even senior Mainland officials concede that some data is flawed.
第三件我們不知道的事 - 這在最近也引起了相當多的關注 - 就是某些關于中國的統計數字的準確性。大家一定也知道，人們對某些數字提出了問題。甚至內地的高級官員也承認有一些數據存在錯誤。

For example, the head of the Central Bank recently confirmed that levels of non-performing loans at China's big state banks are in fact higher than official estimates. However, numbers only tell part of any story. Whether one agrees with official estimates of GDP growth or not, no one can deny that China is developing rapidly. At least not anyone who visits China on a regular basis.
比如，中國人民銀行行長最近證實，中國較大的國有銀行的不良貸款的程度事實上比官方估測的更高。但是，數字僅僅說明了問題的一部分。無論人們是否贊同官方對國民生產總值增長的估測，沒有人可以否認中國正在飛速發展。至少沒有一個經常去中國的人會否認這一點。

Finally, we know that we do not know how China will change the WTO. What role will the country play in shaping future trade talks? Will China's presence prompt other members to address the concerns of developing nations more readily? And how will another large player at the table affect overall group dynamics?
最后，我們知道我們不了解中國會怎樣改變WTO。對于形成未來的貿易對話，中國會扮演什么樣的角色? 中國的加入是否會使其他成員國更愿意關注發展中國家的問題？桌邊又一個大玩家會對全組的動力產生什么樣的影響？

One thing that is clear: the WTO is much more of a global body now than it was prior to China's entry. Simply put, no organization can rightly call itself global if it does not include the world's most populous nation.
有一點是非常清楚的：現在WTO比在中國加入之前更成為一個全球性的組織。 簡單地說，如果不包括這個全世界具有最多人口的國家，沒有一個組織可以問心無愧地說自己是全球性的組織。

Forgotten knowledge
被遺忘的內容

The third area I want to discuss is what we do not know we know. A translation of which might be the things we already know but often overlook or outright forget.
我想討論的第三部分是我們不知道自己了解的事。也可以說是我們已經知道，但經常忽略或者完全忘記的東西。

For example, when it comes to Hong Kong, some people seem to think the SAR will be surpassed. Replaced if you will.
比如，當提到香港時，有些人似乎認為香港特別行政區會被超越。如果你愿意，也可以說是替代。

This doomsday group seems to forget the fact that many of Hong Kong's infrastructural and institutional attributes - including its free-market philosophy, the rule of law and free flow of capital - are attributes which are impossible for any other city in China to replicate any time soon
這些認為到了世界末日的人似乎忘記了這一事實，許多香港的基礎結構和機構的特質 - 包括它的自由市場的思想，法治和資本的自由流動 - 是中國的任何其它城市在短時間內都無法效仿的。

In terms of China itself, some executives of some companies still drool over the prospects of selling their goods or services to a single market of 1.3 billion people.
對于中國本身，某些公司的高級官員還是滿懷信心，希望可以把自己的商品或服務銷售給一個擁有13億消費者的市場。

They seem to overlook or forget the fact that the Mainland market includes 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities directly under the central government, five special economic zones, 14 open coastal and border cities, 15 export processing areas, 14 bonded zones, some 30 provincial-level economic and technological development zones and more than 50 new and high-technology development zones. At least at last count.
 他們似乎忽略或者忘記了這一事實，中國內地的市場包括23個省，5個自治區，4個直轄市，5個經濟特區，14個沿海和沿邊開放城市，15個出口加工區，14個保稅區，大約30個省級經濟和科技發展區， 還有超過50個新興的高科技發展區。至少最近的一次統計是這樣。

And while the preferential policies of some of these special zones will gradually disappear under WTO, the complexities of doing business in such a vast market will not. A fact which - I submit - should subdue any remaining overactive salivary glands.
盡管在中國加入WTO 以后某些區域的優惠政策會逐步取消，在這樣一個巨大的市場里開展業務的復雜性并不會消失。我承認，這一事實會打消任何對這個市場過度樂觀的念頭。

Finally, there are some who seem to think that China's entry into the WTO will provide an avenue to solve all future trade disputes. They seem to forget that the WTO is often used more as a weapon for protectionism than as a shield for open markets.
最后，有一些人似乎認為中國加入WTO 會為未來所有的貿易爭端提供解決的方法。 他們似乎忘記了WTO經常更多地被用作保護貿易主義的武器，而不是用作開放市場的盾牌。

Personally, I think China will work very hard to live up to its commitments and to operate within the rules of the WTO. And if they are smart - and I think they are - they will also seek ways to exploit the rules to the benefit of their own industries. In other words they will act much like every other country on the WTO membership list.
我個人認為，中國將會非常努力地爭取完成它的承諾，并且遵守WTO的規則運作。 如果中國人夠聰明 - 我認為他們確實如此 - 他們也會為了本國行業的利益而尋找可以利用這些規則的方法。換句話說，他們的行動會和WTO 成員國名單上的其它國家一樣。

Applying one's knowledge
應用自己的知識

Against this backdrop of knowledge - both the known and the unknown - it is clear that some foreign companies are itching to get access to the Mainland market.
在這種認知的基礎上 - 包括已知的和未知的 - 很明顯某些外國公司正渴望進入中國內地市場。

I recall reading the comments of one executive who said his two most important questions about China are "which month" and "which day" his company will get the necessary approvals. He went on to say: "If I get four questions, then the third question would be at which hour, and the fourth at which minute we will get our license."
我記得讀到過一位高級官員的評論，他說他對于中國的兩個最重要的問題是"哪個月" 和"哪一天"他的公司可以得到必須的批準。他又說："如果我有四個問題，那么第三個問題就是在哪一個小時，第四個問題則是哪一分鐘我們可以得到許可。"

And just so you know, you can all breathe easier, he was not from an American company!
盡管如此，大家可以松一口氣，因為他不是來自于美國公司！

The reality is that anyone focused solely on the short-term gains or anyone who is prone to impatience is destined to be disappointed. China is like any developing market. It takes time to build a business. Profits cannot be made overnight. It is not a place for foreign companies to improve next quarter's earnings.
實際上，任何一個僅僅注重短期利益增長的人或是任何一個容易失去耐心的人都注定會失望。中國同任何發展中的市場都一樣。業務的建立需要一定的時間。利潤不可能很快就得到。中國這個地方不能使外國公司馬上提高下一季度的收入。

HSBC for its part is not a typical foreign company in the Mainland. As I mentioned earlier, our roots are in China. We have had a continuous presence in the Mainland for more than 135 years. Our name is also well known.
匯豐銀行在中國內地并不是典型的外國公司。我剛才已經提到過，我們的誕生地就在中國。我們在中國內地的業務從未間斷，已超過了135年。我們的名字也廣為人知。

For example, one survey done in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou found that we were by far the most-recognised foreign financial institution. Close to 90 per cent of the respondents said they were familiar with the name HSBC. The next closest foreign bank scored in the low 70s.
比如，在北京，上海和廣州進行的一項調查發現，我們迄今為止是知名度最高的外資金融機構。接近90%的受訪者說他們對匯豐這個名字很熟悉。排在第二位的外資銀行認知率僅僅為70%。

Despite this history and this recognition, we know that we will not automatically benefit from the further opening of China's financial services sector under WTO. We know that we will have to work very hard to maintain our position. And we are.
盡管我們有悠久的歷史和比較高的知名度，我們知道自己不會從中國在加入WTO后進一步開放的金融服務中自動獲得利益。我們知道自己必須非常努力才能保持自己的地位。我們確實是在這么做。

We have moved our China headquarters to Pudong in Shanghai. We have signed RMB remittance pacts with all four of the big state banks and we continue to seek ways to enhance our co-operation with domestic banks. On the people side, localisation remains a top priority. Already, nine out of every 10 of our Mainland staff are hired locally.
我們已經把中國業務總部遷到了上海浦東。我們已經和所有四大國有銀行簽訂了人民幣匯款的合作條約，我們也繼續在尋找增強同中資銀行合作的途徑。在員工這方面，本地化一直是優先考慮的問題。我們在內地的員工已經有90%是在本地招聘的。

Recently we along with a few other foreign banks were given permission to offer foreign currency services to mainland Chinese citizens and corporations in select cities. In HSBC's case, we are allowed to offer such services in three cities: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
最近我們和其他幾家外資銀行一起獲準在部分城市向中國內地的居民和企業提供外幣業務。我們匯豐獲準在北京，上海和廣州這三個城市提供這項服務。

Last December we also purchased an 8 per cent equity stake in the Bank of Shanghai. In addition to becoming the first foreign commercial bank to be allowed to invest in a domestic Chinese bank, we also became - in effect - partners with the Shanghai Municipal Government, the major shareholder in the bank. For us, it was a high and historic note on which to end the year 2001.
去年12月我們購入了上海銀行8%的股權。除了成為第一家獲準投資中資銀行的外資商業銀行之外，我們也成為 - 事實上是如此 - 上海市政府的合作伙伴，因為它是上海銀行的主要股東。對于我們來說，這是為2001年的末尾添上的圓滿的一筆，具有很大的歷史意義。

Just as an aside, not everyone seems to agree that our purchase of a strategic stake in the Bank of Shanghai was all that momentous.
就像一提；并不是每個人似乎都同意；我們購買了上海銀行戰略利益是一切重大.

For example, in subsequent articles heralding the precedent-setting deal, one foreign banker was quoted as saying: "Most of the banks have been offering 15 per cent to the market. If you get 15 per cent you don't get anything." Another foreign banker said that our purchase was "only symbolic" and "without any actual benefits." He also said that his bank had no interest in acquiring a minority stake in any Mainland financial institution
例如,在后續的文章中,預示著曾經的交易,一個外國銀行家被引述說:“大多數銀行已向市場提供15%。如果你得到15%你不得到任何東西。“另一個外國銀行家說,我們的采購只是“象征性的”和“沒有任何實際的好處。”他還表示,他的銀行沒有興趣收購少數股權的任何大陸金融機構

I will not tell you who made these rather pessimistic comments, if for no other reason than to help both individuals 'save face' should their banks later decide to reconsider. What I will say is that both work for our so-called 'strategic competitors'. Consequently, I am inclined to think they were suffering from a touch of fermented fruit syndrome. Otherwise known as a case of sour grapes!
我不會告訴你是誰制作了這些相當悲觀評論,如果沒有其他的理由來幫助個人“保全面子”應該他們的銀行后決定重新考慮。我要說的是這兩個工作對我們所謂的“戰略競爭對手”。因此,我傾向于認為他們受到一點發酵的水果綜合癥。否則稱為是吃不到葡萄閑葡萄酸!

Conclusion
結論

I have spent much of my time this morning talking about the implications of an agreement which became official on the 11th of December 2001. I also briefly mentioned another history-making agreement that was signed on the 28th of February 1972.
今天早上我已經花了很多時間談論從2001年12月11日開始正式生效的WTO協議所帶來的影響。 我也簡單提到了另一個在1972年2月28日簽訂的具有歷史意義的協議。

In fact, there are a number of striking similarities between China's entry into the WTO and the signing of the Shanghai Communiqu¨|.
事實上，在中國加入WTO 和中美上海公報的簽訂這兩者之間有許多相似的地方。

Both agreements changed the world significantly. Both agreements set the stage for increased contact . . . economic and otherwise. And both agreements also came after some considerable negotiation.
這兩個協議都顯著地改變了整個世界。兩個協議都標志著逐步增加接觸的開始 . . . 包括經濟的，還有其它方面的。并且兩個協議也都是在多次談判之后才達成。

At the outset of the 1972 talks, Dr Kissinger reportedly told his Chinese hosts: "The good thing about our relationship is that we want nothing from each other."
據報道，在1972年對話的開始，基辛格博士就對中國的東道主說："我們之間的關系之中有一點很好，就是我們都不想從對方那里獲得什么。"

Chairman Mao is said to have promptly disagreed, noting: "If I had wanted nothing from you, I wouldn't have invited you. And if you wanted nothing from me, you shouldn't have come."
據說毛主席立刻反對說："如果我什么都不想從你們那里得到，我就不會邀請你們。如果你們什么都不想從我們這里得到，你們也就不會來了。"

Similar sentiments apply to the WTO agreement. If China did not have something to gain, it would not have joined the WTO. Nor would it have made, as some observers suggest, commitments that are far more reaching than any previous membership applicant has. Likewise, foreign companies would not be flocking to and expanding their operations in China if they thought there was nothing to gain. Nor if they thought there were no profits to be made.
同樣的感覺也適用于WTO 協議。如果中國不想獲得什么，就不會加入WTO。正如一些觀察家所指出的，它也就不會作出比任何以往的成員申請國影響更深遠的承諾。同樣地，如果外國公司認為什么都得不到，也就不會蜂擁到中國來擴展他們的業務。如果他們認為無利可圖，也不會這樣做。

In closing, let me make one final observation about Hong Kong and the impact of China's entry into the WTO.
在結束之前，我想最后再評述一下關于香港的情況和中國加入WTO 的影響。

I know and I think all of you would agree that Hong Kong is well positioned to play a significant role in the post-entry period. And I know that I know the people of Hong Kong have the capacity and the capability to respond to new challenges. Simply put, I know that if New York is the city that never sleeps, then Hong Kong is the city that never stagnates.
我知道，而且我相信各位都同意這一點，香港處于有利的位置，可以在中國入世后扮演重要的角色。我也知道，我知道香港人有能力應付新的挑戰。簡單地說，我知道如果紐約是不眠的城市，那么香港就是從不停滯的城市。

Thank you.
謝謝大家。

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