Building a More Resilient and Inclusive Global Economy
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國際貨幣基金組織總裁拉加德在布勒哲爾研究所的演講。（中英雙語）
Building a More Resilient and Inclusive Global Economy建立一個更具韌性和包容性的全球經濟
Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director
國際貨幣基金組織總裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德
Bruegel
布勒哲爾研究所
April 12, 2017
2017年4月12日
Thank you, Jean-Claude Trichet and Guntram Wolff, for your kind introductions. And thank you to Bruegel for hosting this event here at the wonderful Bibliothèque Solvay.
感謝讓-克勞德·特里謝和甘特拉姆·沃爾夫的熱情介紹。同時，還要感謝布勒哲爾研究所選擇在美麗的索韋圖書館主辦這次會議。
As I experience this beautiful building, it reminds me that good architecture is not about geometry or design in the first instance – it is about fostering human relationships in private and in public spaces.
置身于這座精美的建筑，我聯想到，好的建筑首先不在于它的幾何結構或設計形式，而在于促進私人和公共空間內的人際關系。
I hear about this often from my son who is an architect – and I also thought about it when reading about the Pritzker Prize – the “Nobel prize” of architecture.
我常常聽我兒子說起這一點，他是一名建筑師；而且，我在讀到建筑界的“諾貝爾獎”——普利茲克建筑獎的相關消息時也曾琢磨了一番。
Last month, when a little-known firm in Catalonia was announced as the winner of this year’s prize, the jury said:
上個月，當宣布加泰羅尼亞一家不知名的公司獲得了今年的普利茲克建筑獎時，評獎團指出：
“More and more people fear that because of international influence, we will lose our local values, our local art, and our local customs. The prize winners help us to see that we can aspire to have both – our roots firmly in place and our arms outstretched to the rest of the world.”
“越來越多的人害怕我們會由于國際影響而喪失自己的本土價值觀、自己的本土藝術以及自己的地方習俗。這幾位獲獎者幫助我們認識到，兩方面 的追求可以并行不悖——在深深扎根于本土的同時，向世界的其他地方張開懷抱。”
Being concerned with the global economic and financial architecture, we should take inspiration from this statement.
我們既然關注全球經濟和金融的架構，就理應從上述言論中獲得啟迪。
We are at a moment where the global economy needs both – a foundation of sound domestic policies combined with a steadfast commitment to international cooperation.
當今時代，全球經濟同時有兩方面的需要——既需要建立穩健的國內政策基礎，又需要堅定致力于開展國際合作。
We need these two elements – the domestic as well as the international – to create a more resilient global economy with sustainable, more durable, and more inclusive growth.
我們需要利用上述國內和國際兩方面因素，創建一個韌性更強的全球經濟，同時形成可持續、更持久、更包容的經濟增長。
Outlook
前景
The good news is that, after six years of disappointing growth, the world economy is gaining momentum as a cyclical recovery holds out the promise of more jobs, higher incomes, and greater prosperity going forward.
眼下的好消息是，經過六年令人失望的增長后，世界經濟勢頭正在加強，周期性復蘇帶來了今后就業機會增加、收入水平上升、繁榮程度提高的希望。
But just as we see this momentum unfolding, we also see – at least in some advanced economies – doubts about the benefits of economic integration, about the very “architecture” that has underpinned the world economy for more than seven decades.
但是，隨著世界經濟增長勢頭加強，我們也看到，至少在某些發達經濟體，存在著對經濟一體化的惠益的懷疑，存在著對七十多年來支撐世界經濟的“建筑”本身的懷疑。
These issues will be on the minds of finance ministers and central bankers from the IMF’s 189 member countries when they meet in Washington next week for our Spring Meetings.
當基金組織189個成員國的財政部長和央行行長下周齊聚華盛頓出席我們的春季會議時，這些問題將成為他們關注的焦點。
They will assess the state of the global economy and, as usual, we will release our World Economic Outlook a few days before the meeting. Today, I will touch on some broad trends.
他們將對全球經濟狀況作出評估，而我們也將照例在會議前幾天發布《世界經濟展望》。今天，我將談一談若干基本趨勢。
For advanced economies, the outlook has improved with stronger manufacturing activity. This upswing is broad-based across countries – including in Europe – although some countries here still face high debt and weaknesses in some banks.
發達經濟體前景向好，原因在于制造業活動增強。經濟前景的改善在各國（包括歐洲國家）不乏廣泛的基礎，盡管一些國家仍然面臨債務高企和部分銀行薄弱的問題。
The prospects for emerging and developing economies also bode well for global growth. These countries have driven the global recovery in recent years, and they will continue to contribute more than three-quarters of global GDP growth in 2017.
新興和發展中經濟體的前景也有利于全球增長。這些國家最近幾年推動了全球復蘇，2017年它們將繼續占全球GDP增長的四分之三以上。
Meanwhile, higher commodity prices have brought relief to many low-income countries. However, these economies still face difficult challenges, including revenue levels that are projected to stay well below the boom years.
同時，大宗商品價格的上漲緩解了許多低收入國家的困難狀況。然而，這些經濟體仍舊面臨著諸多嚴峻挑戰，比如財政收入預計將遠遠低于經濟快速增長年份的水平。
Putting all this together, we see a global economy that has a spring in its step – benefiting from sound policy choices in many countries in recent years.
綜合上述各方面因素可以看出，全球經濟增長的腳步充滿活力，這得益于許多國家近年來實施的穩健政策。
Risks
風險
At the same time, there are clear downside risks: political uncertainty, including in Europe; the sword of protectionism hanging over global trade; and tighter global financial conditions that could trigger disruptive capital outflows from emerging and developing economies.
然而，目前顯然也存在著一些下行風險：政治上的不確定性，包括在歐洲；全球貿易受到保護主義威脅；以及全球金融環境趨緊，這可能會導致新興和發展中經濟體出現破壞性的資本外流。
And underneath those short-term issues lies a weak productivity trend that continues to be a severe drag on strong and inclusive growth – largely because of population aging, the slowdown in trade, and weak private investment since the 2008 financial crisis.
這些短期問題的根源在于生產率增長疲軟，這一趨勢繼續對強有力的包容性增長造成嚴重阻礙——很大程度上是因為自2008年金融危機以來出現的人口老齡化、 貿易增長放緩以及私人投資疲弱等問題。
We estimate that, if productivity growth had followed its pre-2008 crisis trend, overall GDP in advanced economies would be about 5 percent higher today. That would be the equivalent of adding a country with an output larger than Germany to the global economy.
我們估計，如果生產率按照2008年危機前的趨勢增長，那么發達經濟體的總體GDP將比目前的水平大約高出5%。相當于全球經濟中又增加了一個產出大于德國的國家。
Policies
政策
This suggests that there is no room for complacency when it comes to economic policies.
這表明，就經濟政策而言，我們沒有理由沾沾自喜。
We need to build on the policies that have delivered so much for the world. And at the same time, we must avoid policy missteps – or as I have described them, “self-inflicted wounds.”
我們需要利用那些已經對世界經濟發揮了重大作用的各項政策。與此同時，我們必須避免種種政策失誤，也就是我所說的那些“自討苦吃”的行為。
How do we do this? I see three dimensions of economic policies:
我們該怎么做？我認為應當從經濟政策的三個方面入手：
Supporting growth, with an emphasis on productivity;
支持增長，強調生產率；
Sharing the benefits more equitably; and
更加公平地分享收益；
Cooperating across borders through a multilateral framework that has served the world well.
通過已經有效服務于世界的多邊框架，開展跨境合作。
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