(Applause) AIDS was discovered 1981; the virus, 1983. These Gapminder bubbles show you how the spread of the virus was in 1983 in the world, or how we estimate that it was. What we are showing here is -- on this axis here, I'm showing percent of infected adults. And on this axis, I'm showing dollars per person in income. And the size of these bubbles, the size of the bubbles here, that shows how many are infected in each country, and the color is the continent.

(掌聲) 艾滋病發現于1981年，HIV病毒是1983年 這張氣泡圖會展示 1983年后病毒在世界范圍內擴散的情況 這是我們估計的狀況 我們今天要展示的是 這條（Y）軸，是被感染的成年人比例 而這條（X）軸，是人均收入（美元） 而這些氣泡的大小，這些氣泡 代表每個國家被感染的人數 各大洲用顏色區分

Now, you can see United States, in 1983, had a very low percentage infected, but due to the big population, still a sizable bubble. There were quite many people infected in the United States. And, up there, you see Uganda. They had almost five percent infected, and quite a big bubble in spite of being a small country, then. And they were probably the most infected country in the world. Now, what has happened? Now you have understood the graph and now, in the next 60 seconds, we will play the HIV epidemic in the world.

現在來看看美國，在1983年 感染率還非常低 但因為人口基數大，這個氣泡還是很大 也就是說在美國有很多人被感染 再上面是烏干達 感染率接近百分之五 雖然國家不大，但氣泡也不小 他們可能是全世界感染率最高的國家 為什么會這樣？ 我想大家現在都能看明白這個圖表了 在接下來的60秒里 我們會演示HIV病毒在世界上的傳染過程

But first, I have a new invention here. (Laughter) I have solidified the beam of the laser pointer.

但在這之前，我要先拿出我的新發明 (笑聲) 我把激光筆的光線變成固體了

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

(Applause)

(掌聲)

So, ready, steady, go! First, we have the fast rise in Uganda and Zimbabwe. They went upwards like this. In Asia, the first country to be heavily infected was Thailand -- they reached one to two percent. Then, Uganda started to turn back, whereas Zimbabwe skyrocketed, and some years later South Africa had a terrible rise of HIV frequency. Look, India got many infected, but had a low level. And almost the same happens here. See, Uganda coming down, Zimbabwe coming down, Russia went to one percent.

好，準備，坐穩了，開始！ 最開始是烏干達和津巴布韋的感染率飆升 像這樣一直上升 在亞洲，第一個受嚴重傳染的國家是泰國 感染率達到百分之一到二 然后烏干達開始回落 而津巴布韋一飛沖天 幾年后南非的HIV感染率急劇上升 看這里，印度也有很多人被感染 但總體比率還很低 這里也一樣 看，烏干達下降了，津巴布韋下降了 俄羅斯上升到百分之一

In the last two to three years, we have reached a steady state of HIV epidemic in the world. 25 years it took. But, steady state doesn't mean that things are getting better, it's just that they have stopped getting worse. And it has -- the steady state is, more or less, one percent of the adult world population is HIV-infected. It means 30 to 40 million people, the whole of California -- every person, that's more or less what we have today in the world.

在過去的兩三年里 世界HIV傳染進入了穩定期 從開始到現在花了25年 但穩定并不意味著情況開始好轉 而只是不再惡化而已 穩定情況就是說或多或少 世界成年人口的百分之一感染了HIV病毒 也就是說大約3000萬到4000萬人 相當于加利福尼亞的所有人口 這就是現在全世界艾滋病患者的大概數量

Now, let me make a fast replay of Botswana. Botswana -- upper middle-income country in southern Africa, democratic government, good economy, and this is what happened there. They started low, they skyrocketed, they peaked up there in 2003, and now they are down. But they are falling only slowly, because in Botswana, with good economy and governance, they can manage to treat people. And if people who are infected are treated, they don't die of AIDS. These percentages won't come down because people can survive 10 to 20 years. So there's some problem with these metrics now. But the poorer countries in Africa, the low-income countries down here, there the rates fall faster, of the percentage infected, because people still die. In spite of PEPFAR, the generous PEPFAR, all people are not reached by treatment, and of those who are reached by treatment in the poor countries, only 60 percent are left on treatment after two years. It's not realistic with lifelong treatment for everyone in the poorest countries. But it's very good that what is done is being done.

我們再快速看一下博茨瓦納的傳染過程 博茨瓦納 - 南部非洲中上收入國家 民主政府，經濟也不錯 來看看這里的情況 （感染率）開始很低，然后火箭般竄升 在2003年達到頂峰 現在有所下降 但下降的速度很慢 因為博茨瓦納的經濟政治環境不錯 可以治療艾滋病患者 感染者只要接受治療就不會輕易死于艾滋病 所以這個比例不會下降 因為病毒攜帶者可以繼續活上10年到20年 所以這個測量方法現在有點問題 但非洲的窮國，下面的這些低收入國家 感染比例下降的很快 因為感染者在不斷死亡 盡管有總統艾滋病緊急防治救援計劃（PEPFAR），慷慨的PEPFAR 并不是所有人都能得到治療 貧窮國家中，即使是受到治療的那些人 兩年后也只剩下60%的人還在治療計劃中 對窮國中的每一個患者 進行終身治療是不現實的 但已經做的這些治療畢竟是件好事

But focus now is back on prevention. It is only by stopping the transmission that the world will be able to deal with it. Drugs is too costly -- had we had the vaccine, or when we will get the vaccine, that's something more effective -- but the drugs are very costly for the poor. Not the drug in itself, but the treatment and the care which is needed around it. So, when we look at the pattern, one thing comes out very clearly: you see the blue bubbles and people say HIV is very high in Africa. I would say, HIV is very different in Africa. You'll find the highest HIV rate in the world in African countries, and yet you'll find Senegal, down here -- the same rate as United States. And you'll find Madagascar, and you'll find a lot of African countries about as low as the rest of the world. It's this terrible simplification that there's one Africa and things go on in one way in Africa. We have to stop that. It's not respectful, and it's not very clever to think that way.

但現在的關注點已經回到了預防上 只有阻止了傳播 我們的世界才會有辦法解決艾滋病 藥物太貴了 -- 要有疫苗就好了 或者知道什么時候會有疫苗，疫苗會有效的多 但藥物對窮人來說太貴了 并不是藥物本身貴，而是整個治療過程 以及所需的看護很貴 所以，我們看看整個圖表 有一件事非常清楚： 你看那些藍色的氣泡 人們會說非洲的HIV攜帶率很高 我得說，HIV在非洲也是不同的 世界上最高的HIV感染率 在非洲國家 但這里也有塞內加爾，下面這里 感染率和美國一樣 也有馬達加斯加 和其它很多非洲國家 和世界其它地方的感染率一樣低 將非洲簡單地同一化是很可怕的 認為非洲的所有事情都是一個樣 我們不能再這么想 這么想很不尊重 也很不明智

(Applause)

(掌聲)

I had the fortune to live and work for a time in the United States. I found out that Salt Lake City and San Francisco were different. (Laughter) And so it is in Africa -- it's a lot of difference. So, why is it so high? Is it war? No, it's not. Look here. War-torn Congo is down there -- two, three, four percent. And this is peaceful Zambia, neighboring country -- 15 percent. And there's good studies of the refugees coming out of Congo -- they have two, three percent infected, and peaceful Zambia -- much higher. There are now studies clearly showing that the wars are terrible, that rapes are terrible, but this is not the driving force for the high levels in Africa.

我有幸在美國生活和工作過一段時間 我發現鹽湖城和舊金山就很不一樣 (笑聲) 非洲也是一樣 -- 各地有很多不同 那，為什么會這么高？因為戰爭？ 不是的。看這里 飽經戰火的剛果在下面 -- 百分之二、三、四的樣子 而和平的鄰國贊比亞 -- 百分之十五 有人研究過剛果難民的感染率 也在百分之二到三之間 而和平的贊比亞要高得多 現在有研究明確表明 雖然有很多戰爭，很多強奸 但并不是非洲HIV病毒高攜帶率的主要原因

So, is it poverty? Well if you look at the macro level, it seems more money, more HIV. But that's very simplistic, so let's go down and look at Tanzania. I will split Tanzania in five income groups, from the highest income to the lowest income, and here we go. The ones with the highest income, the better off -- I wouldn't say rich -- they have higher HIV. The difference goes from 11 percent down to four percent, and it is even bigger among women. There's a lot of things that we thought, that now, good research, done by African institutions and researchers together with the international researchers, show that that's not the case. So, this is the difference within Tanzania.

那，是因為貧窮嗎？ 如果我們看看宏觀水平 好像錢越多，HIV就越多 但這過于簡單化了 我們來仔細看看坦桑尼亞的情況 我把坦桑尼亞人按收入分成五組 從最高收入到最低 我們來看看 收入最高的人，處境較好的人，我不會叫他們富人 他們的HIV感染率更高 感染率最高有百分之十一，最低的到百分之四 婦女中這個差距更大 我們現在的想法，被很多研究 非洲及國際機構和研究人員所做的研究 證實是錯誤的 那么，這是坦桑尼亞的例子

And, I can't avoid showing Kenya. Look here at Kenya. I've split Kenya in its provinces. Here it goes. See the difference within one African country -- it goes from very low level to very high level, and most of the provinces in Kenya is quite modest.

我必須再舉一下肯尼亞的例子 來看看肯尼亞 我按省份劃分肯尼亞 來看看 在同一個非洲國家里的差別 從很低的水平到很高的水平 而肯尼亞大部分的省份感染率并不高

So, what is it then? Why do we see this extremely high levels in some countries? Well, it is more common with multiple partners, there is less condom use, and there is age-disparate sex -- that is, older men tend to have sex with younger women. We see higher rates in younger women than younger men in many of these highly affected countries.

那到底是什么原因呢？ 為什么有些國家的感染率那么高？ 有多個性伴侶的因素 有不愛用避孕套的因素 有異齡性愛因素 -- 就是老男人喜歡跟年輕女人做愛 在很多感染率較高的國家里 年輕女性的感染率要高于年輕男性

But where are they situated? I will swap the bubbles to a map. Look, the highly infected are four percent of all population and they hold 50 percent of the HIV-infected. HIV exists all over the world. Look, you have bubbles all over the world here. Brazil has many HIV-infected. Arab countries not so much, but Iran is quite high. They have heroin addiction and also prostitution in Iran. India has many because they are many. Southeast Asia, and so on. But, there is one part of Africa -- and the difficult thing is, at the same time, not to make a uniform statement about Africa, not to come to simple ideas of why it is like this, on one hand.

那地理上的分布又是怎么樣呢？ 我把氣泡轉移到地圖上 看，高感染率的國家占世界人口的百分之四 但卻有全球百分之五十的HIV感染者 HIV在世界各地都存在 看，氣泡分布在所有地方 巴西有很多HIV感染者 阿拉伯國家不多，但伊朗很高 伊朗的問題是海洛因和賣淫 印度有很多因為它本身人口多 東南亞，等等 但非洲有一部分 -- 同時要注意的是 不要說到非洲就想到整個非洲 一方面不要認為出現現在的情況是因為單一的原因

On the other hand, try to say that this is not the case, because there is a scientific consensus about this pattern now. UNAIDS have done good data available, finally, about the spread of HIV. It could be concurrency. It could be some virus types. It could be that there is other things which makes transmission occur in a higher frequency. After all, if you are completely healthy and you have heterosexual sex, the risk of infection in one intercourse is one in 1,000. Don't jump to conclusions now on how to behave tonight and so on. (Laughter) But -- and if you are in an unfavorable situation, more sexually transmitted diseases, it can be one in 100.

另一方面要承認現在的情況很嚴重 現在對這個分布圖科學界已經達成了共識 UNAIDS終于提供了HIV傳播的 詳細數據 可能是同時擁有多重性伴侶 可能是某些病毒種類 可能是有別的原因 使得傳播到這樣高的比例 不管怎樣，如果你完全健康并且是異性戀 每次性交被傳染的概率是千分之一 別輕易得出結論 今晚就去胡搞 (笑聲) 但是，如果你的狀況不那么好 更多通過性傳染的疾病幾率可以達到百分之一

But what we think is that it could be concurrency. And what is concurrency? In Sweden, we have no concurrency. We have serial monogamy. Vodka, New Year's Eve -- new partner for the spring. Vodka, Midsummer's Eve -- new partner for the fall. Vodka -- and it goes on like this, you know? And you collect a big number of exes. And we have a terrible chlamydia epidemic -- terrible chlamydia epidemic which sticks around for many years. HIV has a peak three to six weeks after infection and therefore, having more than one partner in the same month is much more dangerous for HIV than others. Probably, it's a combination of this.

但我們認為同時擁有多個性伴可能是主要原因 什么是同時擁有多重性伴侶？ 在瑞典我們沒有多重性伴侶 我們是連續的單一性伴侶 喝伏特加，除夕夜 -- 春天有新伙伴了 喝伏特加，仲夏夜 -- 秋天有新伙伴了 喝伏特加 -- 繼續這樣子，你們明白了嗎？ 這樣你會有很多“前”女友 有一種可怕的衣原體傳染病 這種可怕的衣原體傳染病持續多年 而HIV是在感染后的三到六周有一個活動高峰 因此，在一個月里有多個性伙伴 對HIV傳播是特別危險的 很可能，這是原因之一

And what makes me so happy is that we are moving now towards fact when we look at this. You can get this chart, free. We have uploaded UNAIDS data on the Gapminder site. And we hope that when we act on global problems in the future we will not only have the heart, we will not only have the money, but we will also use the brain.

讓我高興的是我們在考慮這些因素的時候 在不斷地向真相進步 大家可以免費來拿這份圖表 我們把UNAIDS的數據上傳到Gapminder.org 并且希望將來在解決全球性問題時 我們不僅帶著一顆心 不僅帶著錢 也多用腦子

Thank you very much.

謝謝大家

(Applause)

(掌聲)

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